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iPod classic on shuffle
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Mu Mu
Mu Mu
2784 posts

Re: Let's Make a Deal

Not sure I understand.

If I choose Door 1 (1/3 chance) and the host opens Door 3, which is empty, my odds on Door 1 stay at 1/3 while my odds on Door 2 go up to 2/3????

Jul 11, 2011, 20:26


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wracket
wracket
1427 posts

Re: Let's Make a Deal

Mu Mu wrote:
Not sure I understand.

If I choose Door 1 (1/3 chance) and the host opens Door 3, which is empty, my odds on Door 1 stay at 1/3 while my odds on Door 2 go up to 2/3????

Here's another way of looking at it. Let's assume you're going to switch no matter what. The only way you can lose with the "I will switch no matter what" strategy is if the door you initially chose is the right one. This is because, if your initial choice is not correct, that means the prize is behind one of the two other doors--and the host has to eliminate the remaining "wrong" door for you. So since you have a 2/3 chance of picking the wrong door the first time around, with this strategy of "I will switch no matter what", you thus have a 2/3 chance of finishing with the prize.

Jul 11, 2011, 20:35


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c in dc
c in dc
1032 posts

Re: Let's Make a Deal

Mu Mu wrote:
Not sure I understand.

If I choose Door 1 (1/3 chance) and the host opens Door 3, which is empty, my odds on Door 1 stay at 1/3 while my odds on Door 2 go up to 2/3????


Maybe the way to look at this is that you are, in effect, trading your single door for the other 2 doors. You would obviously trade your single door for the other 2 before the host reveals one of them as empty.
In other words, the winning door will in the doors you did not pick 2/3 of the time, and revealing one of them as a loser does not change this probability.
Don't feel bad if you missed this; when the puzzle was first presented back in the day, hundreds of PhD types argued against the answer.
More here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

And here:


Jul 11, 2011, 23:08


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cyberpainter
cyberpainter
5940 posts

Re: Let's Make a Deal

Ok, so basically he would be better off trading for the hosts remaining door, he'd have better odds.

Jul 12, 2011, 03:36


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Mu Mu
Mu Mu
2784 posts

Re: Let's Make a Deal

cyberpainter wrote:
Ok, so basically he would be better off trading for the hosts remaining door, he'd have better odds.


Yes, but back to the question I asked earlier...

After the host opens the empty door, are the odds 1/3 (on the door picked) and 2/3 (on the door not picked)?

What are the new odds?

Jul 12, 2011, 13:49


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c in dc
c in dc
1032 posts

Re: Let's Make a Deal

Mu Mu wrote:
Yes, but back to the question I asked earlier...

After the host opens the empty door, are the odds 1/3 (on the door picked) and 2/3 (on the door not picked)?


Yes, those are the new odds.
The professor from a logic class I took in college would probably disagree. During one class, we were discussing the odds of a coin flip, and the fact that each flip had a discreet 50/50 chance of landing heads or tails, no matter what had come before. Then he asked us what the probability was that a flipped coin would turn into a cat mid-air, come down and land on its feet, and run away. When we all said that the odds were zero, he answered "Yes, but that is only based n all previous observations of coin flips; there is a first time for everything!".
Have another bong hit, Professor. But damn if I don't remember him every time someone flips a coin. I always think "This could be the one; come on cat!"

Jul 12, 2011, 14:47


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hito
hito
1745 posts

Re: iPod classic on shuffle

So I know this turned into a discussion about statistics but I am still convinced there is some kind of "intelligent design" behind the shuffle function. I wonder whether it is something to do with:

genre
beat / rhythm

Most of the time, my shuffle slips seamlessly from one track to the next. For example, it went from Broadcast's Microtronics 14 to Broadcast and the Focus Group's Reception / Group Therapy. Similar group and sound. This is just one example.

It also went from Devo's Timing X to Cream's Crossroads. Now saying those two may make one think there's no link but I swear there is something in the rhythm of those two tracks that is similar.

Nov 03, 2013, 03:21


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cyberpainter
cyberpainter
5940 posts

Re: iPod classic on shuffle

Could very well be there is an algorithm that helps it sound less random. Stands to reason, as apple would want you to enjoy your shuffling, and we all know how annoying a bad DJ can be!

Nov 03, 2013, 10:31


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GaryB2
GaryB2
2329 posts

Re: iPod classic on shuffle

cyberpainter wrote:
Could very well be there is an algorithm that helps it sound less random. Stands to reason, as apple would want you to enjoy your shuffling, and we all know how annoying a bad DJ can be!


The genius playlist is exactly this! It maybe has some influence, sometimes, even when turned off?!

Nov 04, 2013, 00:52


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hito
hito
1745 posts

Re: iPod classic on shuffle

How does genius work?

Nov 04, 2013, 13:30

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