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Re: Let's Make a Deal

Mu Mu wrote:
Not sure I understand.

If I choose Door 1 (1/3 chance) and the host opens Door 3, which is empty, my odds on Door 1 stay at 1/3 while my odds on Door 2 go up to 2/3????

Here's another way of looking at it. Let's assume you're going to switch no matter what. The only way you can lose with the "I will switch no matter what" strategy is if the door you initially chose is the right one. This is because, if your initial choice is not correct, that means the prize is behind one of the two other doors--and the host has to eliminate the remaining "wrong" door for you. So since you have a 2/3 chance of picking the wrong door the first time around, with this strategy of "I will switch no matter what", you thus have a 2/3 chance of finishing with the prize.

Jul 11, 2011, 20:35


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